How to Trade Prediction Markets on ApeX Omni via the Polymarket Integration

ApeX doesn’t set its own prediction-market prices, every index price for its Prediction Contracts is sourced directly from Polymarket, and ApeX itself neither determines nor modifies the settlement outcome.

This guide is part of TradeOnDEX’s ApeX Protocol how-to series within Perpetual Futures.

Disclosure: TradeOnDEX may earn a commission from links to ApeX on this page, at no extra cost to you. Full details at the end of this article.

What a prediction contract actually is

A prediction market lets traders speculate on the outcome of a future binary event, a price milestone, a political election, a sports outcome, anything with a clear yes/no resolution. Contracts trade between 0.001 and 0.999, representing the market’s implied probability of the event occurring, and settle at one of those two extremes based on the actual real-world outcome.

This means for you, concretely: the price you see isn’t an arbitrary number, it’s the market’s current collective estimate of how likely the event is, continuously updating as new information arrives, right up until settlement.

Why the Polymarket link matters

ApeX Omni’s Prediction Contracts rely on Polymarket as the underlying price reference for settlement, all index prices are sourced directly from Polymarket, and ApeX mirrors those outcomes rather than running an independent resolution process. This means for you, concretely: you’re trading a derivative on Polymarket’s own market outcome specifically, so understanding how a given Polymarket event resolves is directly relevant to how your ApeX position settles, even though you’re trading on ApeX’s own interface.

How to trade, step by step

1. Log into ApeX Omni and find the Prediction Contracts section under the Markets tab.
2. Convert funds from your Cash or Stock account into your Perpetual account before placing your first prediction trade.
3. Choose your event, direction, and quantity, and execute at market price or a specified limit price.
4. Manage your position, you can close it at any time except during the final 30 minutes before settlement.
5. At settlement, the outcome resolves to either 0.999 (event happened) or 0.001 (event didn’t happen), an all-or-nothing result.

Risk: what settlement mechanics actually mean for you

Settlement is binary, there’s no partial win. Unlike a typical perpetual position where you can close at any point along a continuous price range and realize a partial gain or loss, a prediction contract resolves fully to one extreme or the other at settlement, your position is either a full win or a total loss on the settled portion, based on the real event outcome.

You can’t close your position during the final 30 minutes before settlement. This means for you, concretely: your last opportunity to exit is earlier than the actual resolution moment, plan around this cutoff rather than assuming you can adjust or close your position right up until the event resolves.

You’re trading a derivative on Polymarket’s outcome, so understanding Polymarket’s own resolution criteria matters. Since ApeX mirrors Polymarket’s settlement price rather than running independent resolution, ambiguous or disputed event wording on the underlying Polymarket market directly affects how your ApeX position settles.

This is fundamentally different from a standard perpetual position tracking a continuously moving price. Don’t apply the same mental model you’d use for a BTC or ETH perpetual, a prediction contract’s value is driven by evolving probability estimates of a discrete future event, not ongoing supply-and-demand price discovery for a tradable asset.

Prediction contracts vs. a standard perpetual position

See it for yourself

Before trading a prediction contract, read the underlying Polymarket event’s exact resolution criteria, since ambiguity there directly affects how your ApeX position settles, this matters more here than checking a typical asset’s price chart. You can review current prediction markets at apex.exchange.

Frequently asked questions

Does ApeX determine its own prediction-market outcomes?

No, index prices and settlement outcomes are sourced directly from Polymarket; ApeX mirrors these rather than running an independent resolution process.

Can I close my prediction contract position at any time?

You can close at any point except during the final 30 minutes before settlement, when the position becomes locked ahead of resolution.

What happens at settlement, is there a partial outcome?

No, settlement is binary, resolving to either 0.999 (event happened) or 0.001 (event didn’t happen), an all-or-nothing result.

Is a prediction contract the same as a regular crypto perpetual?

No, it tracks an evolving probability estimate for a discrete future event and settles in a binary fashion, unlike a standard perpetual that tracks a continuously moving asset price.

Affiliate disclosure

TradeOnDEX may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through a link on this page, at no extra cost to you. ApeX’s own affiliate/referral terms are still being confirmed for this site, so links here are direct and untracked for now. This article is educational and is not financial advice. See our disclaimer for the full risk warning.